Delonghi Dehumidifier DEC10
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User reviews and opinions
|rodmmm||5:26pm on Friday, September 17th, 2010|
|Great buy! Unfortunately the first dehumidifier sent to me broke down after 10 minutes due to the fan inside coming to bits. A good.|
|jturner49||7:17pm on Monday, August 23rd, 2010|
|Dehumidifiers and came across the Delonghi DEM10 Compact, available online at both John Lewis and Amazon at the price of 99.95.|
|Michel Firholz||5:27am on Sunday, August 22nd, 2010|
|I have found this dehumidifer dose a really good job and at the right price . Having had an Ebac before which cost more and was very noisey . Water bath removal quick and easy. Runs as quiet as expected. Works very efficient None|
|peterfromhobart||10:15pm on Tuesday, May 11th, 2010|
|Ended up deciding on the Delonghi Dem10. ==In the box== In the box is the dehumidifier itself, a power supply, user guide and a metre of hose. Our large, four bedroom house is over 200 years old and therefore has no cavity walls to insulate. Before getting new windows fitted we suffered from massive amounts of condensation in our home.|
|jassyjohn||3:46pm on Tuesday, May 11th, 2010|
|I have found this dehumidifer dose a really good job and at the right price . Having had an Ebac before which cost more and was very noisey . the dehumidifier has done everything I expected,is quiet in operation, neat in appearance. I am well pleased with my purchase|
Comments posted on www.ps2netdrivers.net are solely the views and opinions of the people posting them and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of us.
Equity Company Note
More is Yet to Come
De Longhi - Key estimates and data Y/E December Revenues EUR M EBITDA EUR M EBIT EUR M Net income EUR M Dividend ord. EUR Adj. EPS EUR EV/EBITDA x Adj. P/E x 2010E 1620.34 188.63 140.50 67.14 0.13 0.49 5.51 13.30 2011E 1769.86 223.31 174.64 93.41 0.17 0.62 4.43 10.41 2012E 1897.66 247.39 196.15 109.24 0.19 0.73 3.75 8.90 2013E 2010.81 270.04 215.75 125.03 0.19 0.84 3.18 7.78
9 February 2011
Target Price: EUR 7.90 5.90) (from EUR 5.90)
Consumer Goods Company Update
A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research
Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department
Luca Bacoccoli Research Analyst +8794 9810
DeLonghi back on the investor radar. Following the release of 3Q10A results in midNovember, DeLonghis stock price rallied more than 50% towards its historical high of EUR 7.10/share, touched in early February. In the same period, DeLonghis main peer and competitor SEBs stock price rose by 3.2% while the Italy FTSE Small Cap advanced by only 2.9%. DeLonghi benefited from a significant re-rating momentum supported by marked earnings revisions, stemming from the better than expected results and a much more benign outlook. The consequence of this was that after having been neglected for many years DeLonghi again entered the investors radar, which in turn triggered the usual virtuous circle caused by better earnings driving improving liquidity, which draws the attention of new investors. Robust top line growth continues in 4Q10. The strong earnings momentum seen up to 9M10A continued in the last part of last year, as the preliminary FY10A sales figures announced in late January showed. The 4Q10A top line amounted to EUR 550M, corresponding to a sound 17% increase vs. 4Q09A, still driven by a double-digit growth achieved by the dynamic Household division (75% of consolidated sales), which was helped by a lower but positive growth from the Professional division (25%). Estimates: Following the encouraging closure of the year, we revise upwards for the fifth time our 2010E EPS, up by 2% and now 2.8% ahead of consensus. As far as 2011E is concerned, we raise the Coffee Makers division sales growth from 10% to +15% yoy, and we also increase the Cooking divisions expected growth to 10% from the previously forecast +5%, each representing 30% of group turnover. We therefore move our sales growth to 9.2% yoy at EUR 1,771M (3.7% ahead of consensus), which corresponds to the company best case scenario for a +5-10% range. Marginwise, we now project a gross margin at 43.5% from 43.0% previously forecast (-30bps vs. FY10E) reflecting the effects of the list price revisions (this January and last September) which we assume to almost offset the EUR 40M incremental costs we calculate the company has to face this year. As a consequence of this, 2011E EBITDA moves from EUR 201.8M to EUR 223.3M (+10.7%), corresponding to a 12.6% EBITDA margin from 11.9% previously expected, and net profit to EUR 93.4M which is respectively 16.4% and 13% ahead of our previous and consensus estimates. Valuation. Despite the strong performance of the stock, we remain positive on DeLonghi due to: 1) the expected positive news flow going forward; 2) the excellent earnings momentum (33.9% 2010E-12E CAGR); 3) the further estimates revision at consensus level which we believe still has to take place; and 4) the cheap valuation. We thus confirm our BUY recommendation but move our target price to EUR 7.90/share (from EUR 5.90/share) derived by using the DCF model (WACC: 9.8%, g: 1%). At the new target price DeLonghi would trade at 5.4x and 12.6x respectively on 2011E EV/EBITDA and P/E, corresponding to a 17% discount vs. SEB at EV/EBITDA level, while in-line with its peer in terms of P/E. Key risks. Key risks are a sudden top line slow down, a sharp decline of the EUR, and a failure of the new pricing policy. The main opportunities come from a reversal in raw material prices and the optimisation of the capital structure.
Price performance, -1Y
09/02/11 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 F M A M J J DE LONGHI FTSE ITALIA ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX A S O N D J F
Source: Thomson Reuters
Data priced on 08.02.2011 Target price () 7.90 Target upside (%) 21.45 Market price () 6.51 52-week range () 6.9/2.8 Market cap ( M) 972.50 No. of shares (M) 149.50 Free float (%) 24.9 Major shareholder The Long E (%) Trust, 75 Reuters DLG.MI Bloomberg DLG IM FTSE It All Shares 23350 Performance % Absolute Rel. to FTSE All Sh -1M 11.8 -1M 2.1 -3M 56.4 -3M 49.3 -12M 131.1 -12M 122.1
Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates and Thomson Reuters
See page 13 for full disclosures and analyst certification
De Longhi 9 February 2011
A Strong Re-rating Fundamentally Driven Positive Earnings Momentum Poised to Continue Earnings Outlook Valuation 5 8
A Strong Re-rating Fundamentally Driven
Following the release of 3Q10A results in mid-November, DeLonghis stock price rallied more than 50% towards its historical high of EUR 7.10/share touched in early February. In the same period, DeLonghis main peer and competitor SEBs stock price rose by 3.2% while the Italy FTSE Small Cap advanced by only 2.9%. DeLonghi benefited from a significant re-rating momentum supported by marked earnings revisions stemming from the better than expected results and a much more benign outlook. The consequence of this was that after having been neglected for many years DeLonghi again entered the investors radar, which in turn triggered the usual virtuous circle caused by better earnings driving improving liquidity which draws the attention of new investors.
DeLonghi - Volume and price
DeLonghi, back on investors radar screen led to improving liquidity
7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 Price (L) May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11
4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
As the chart below shows, DeLonghis performance in the last 12 months is even more impressive as the stock price more than doubled along with continuing positive earnings upgrades throughout the year as the 2010E consensus EPS moved from EUR 0.30/share at the beginning of last year to EUR 0.49/share (+63%) as of present.
De longhi Performance vs. SEB - Italy FTSE Small Cap, Italy FTSE All-Share
Price Base 100 for De'Longhi S.p.A. (IT) in EUR as of 07/02/11
De'Longhi S.p.A. (Rebased)
SEB S.A. (Rebased)
Italy FTSE Italia Small Cap (Rebased)
Italy FTSE Italia All-Share (Rebased)
Positive Earnings Momentum Poised to Continue
The strong earnings momentum seen up to 9M10A continued in the last part of last year, as the preliminary FY10A sales figures announced in late January showed (FY10E results are due out the 3rd of March). The 4Q10A top line amounted to EUR 550M, corresponding to a sound 17% increase vs. 4Q09A, still driven by a double-digit growth achieved by the dynamic Household division (75% of consolidated sales) which was helped by a lower but positive growth from the Professional division (25%). The FY10A top line amounted to EUR 1,620M, again beating our and consensus estimates which were expecting a more modest growth in the end of the year (approx. +13-15%) due to the tougher comparison, as in 4Q09A De Longhi achieved the best top line growth of the whole of 2009.
Robust top line growth continues in 4Q10
Following the encouraging closure of the year, we revised upwards our 2010E EPS by 2% driven by better than expected 4Q10A sales which should translate into higher EBITDA (up to EUR 188.6M from EUR 186.3M). Our adj. net profit is now 2.8% above FactSet consensus. As far as 2011E is concerned, we now adopt a more aggressive approach in modelling this years top line growth to factoring-in the comforting preliminary sales results achieved in FY10A. More specifically, we raise the Coffee Makers division sales growth from 10% to +15% yoy (slightly above the 13% 2005-09 CAGR of the Espresso coffee makers business) to fully include the expected positive returns from the new products launched (i.e. super automatic machines), and from the agreement signed with Nestle for the Dolce Gusto distribution agreement in Europe. Finally, we also increase the growth expected on the Cooking division to 10% from the previously expected +5%, to factor-in the good momentum of Kenwood branded products.
DeLonghi - 2010E-12E estimates Delta% EUR M 2010E New 2010E Old Delta 2011E New 2011E Old Delta 2012E New 2012E Old Delta% Sales 1,620.3 1,601.0 1.2 1,769.9 1,701.9 4.0 1,897.7 1,793.5 5.8 1.2 EBITDA 188.6 186.3 1.2 223.3 201.8 10.7 247.4 217.4 13.8 on margins (%) 11.6 11.6 12.6 11.9 13.0 12.1 EBITDA post extr. 182.6 180.3 1.3 223.3 201.8 10.7 247.4 217.4 13.8 EBIT post. Extr. 140.5 138.7 1.3 174.6 154.6 12.9 196.2 169.0 16.1 on margins (%) 8.7 8.7 9.9 9.1 10.3 9.4 Net Profit 67.1 66.0 1.7 93.4 80.2 16.4 109.2 92.1 18.6 Net Profit adj. 73.1 -39.8 -283.9 93.4 -53.7 -274.0 109.2 92.1 18.6
E: estimates; Source: Intesa Sanpaolo Research
2010E EPS up for the fifth time
More aggressive top line growth adopted in 2011E.
We therefore move our sales growth to 9.2% yoy at EUR 1,771M (3.7% ahead of consensus), which corresponds to the best case scenario flagged by management during the last conf. call (+5-10%), from our previous base case looking for sales at EUR 1,702M (+6% yoy). Marginwise, we now project a gross margin at 43.5% from 43.0% previously forecast but still below the FY10 level (-30bps). The better profitability reflects the effects of the recent list price revisions which, cumulated to the pricing actions taken in September 2010, we expect to almost offset the EUR 40M 2011E incremental costs the company has to face according to our calculations. These incremental costs, which by roughly 2/3 refer to higher input costs (of which steel and plastic amount to EUR 150M), and for the rest to a less favourable USD/EUR forex, are cautiously fully included in our cost model, despite the recent strengthening of the EUR suggesting a lower negative impact in the region of EUR 10M: DeLonghi hedged only 30% of its 2011 requirements at 1.33/1.34 vs. the 1.3 used in the budget, and the recent strengthening of the EUR could entail further savings.
.expected to progress by 9.2%
A better scenario factoredin at gross margin thanks to list price revision.
DeLonghi - 2007A-13E sales breakdown EUR M 2007A 2008A Household Household 1,088.4 1,120.2 o/w Cooking 435.4 429.7 Coffee machines 261.2 333.5 Heating 163.3 129.8 Air Conditioning & Treatment 98.0 104.1 Ironing & Cleaining 98.0 99.6 Other 32.7 23.5 Professional 402.6 413.9 o/w 33.0 Wall & industrial conditioning 293.9 282.7 Prof. heating 108.7 121.7 Other 0.0 9.5 Tot. 1,491.0 1,534.1 Rate% Growth Rate% Household Household o/w Cooking Coffee machines Heating Air condi&Treat Ironing & Clining Other Professional o/w Airt cond & treat Heating Other Tot. 2007A NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 9.4 2008A 2.9 -1.3 27.7 -20.5 6.2 1.7 -28.0 2.8 -3.8 12.0 NM 2.9 2009A 1,077.0 416.8 345.3 117.2 86.0 91.6 20.0 327.0 223.3 96.1 7.5 1,404.0 2009A -3.9 -3.0 3.6 -9.7 -17.4 -8.0 -15.0 -21.0 -21 -21 -21 -8.5 2010E 1,271.0 468.9 466.2 125.4 85.1 105.4 20.0 349.3 245.7 96.1 7.5 1,620.3 2010E 18.0 12.5 35.0 7.0 -1.0 15.0 0.0 6.15.4 2011E 1,403.2 515.8 536.1 127.9 87.2 115.9 20.2 366.6 258.0 100.9 7.7 1,769.9 2011E 10.4 10.0 15.0 2.0 2.5 10.0 1.0 5.9.2 2012E 1,512.9 546.8 600.5 130.5 89.4 125.2 20.6 384.7 270.8 106.0 7.9 1,897.7 2012E 7.8 6.0 12.0 2.0 2.5 8.0 2.0 4.7.2 2013E 1,607.1 574.1 654.5 133.1 91.7 132.7 21.0 403.7 284.4 111.3 8.1 2,010.8 2013E 6.2 5.0 9.0 2.0 2.5 6.0 2.0 4.6.0
As a consequence of this, 2011E EBITDA moves from EUR 201.8M to EUR 223.3M (+10.7%), corresponding to a 12.6% EBITDA margin from 11.9% previously expected, and factors-in a 20% increase in transportation costs due to the higher oil price and a 9.5% increase on A&P (to EUR 124M). To cross-check the conversion of the expected sales growth into the additional EBITDA we use the empirical evidence for which historically the company operating leverage calls for incremental EUR 0.25 EBITDA each EUR 1 turnover increase and we obtain an outcome aligned with our new EBITDA forecast, which is now 11.5% ahead of FactSet consensus. We therefore obtain a net profit of EUR 93.4M from EUR 80.2M previously expected (+16.4%), 13% ahead of consensus. We also cautiously project a modest worsening of NWC, which should absorb about EUR 27M this year, and a free cashflow generation expected at EUR 50M. The net debt should decrease to EUR 17M after a dividend payment of EUR 20M (2% dividend yield).
DeLonghi - 2007A-13E EUR M Tot. fixed assets NWC Inventory Receivables Paybles Others Long-terms Liabilities Net capital employed Net financial position Shareholders' equity
.driving the EBITDA 11% ahead of consensus.
.and Net Profit up 16.4% vs. previous estimates.
2007A 709.4 363.4 335.2 378.0 335.2 -16.1 86.2 986.6 -356.3 630.7
2008A 640.2 356.1 320.5 367.2 320.5 -45.1 87.7 908.6 -246.4 662.3
2009A 632.9 264.4 257.1 351.9 257.1 -53.5 91.7 805.6 -117.1 688.5
2010E 635.9 268.6 268.6 297.4 395.1 297.4 -82.2 94.3 810.2 -66.3 743.9
2011E 636.4 295.2 320.0 436.4 320.0 -87.9 96.6 835.0 -17.4 817.5
2012E 638.1 317.9 343.1 465.3 343.1 -92.8 98.8 857.2 43.6 900.8
2013E 647.8 338.1 363.6 493.1 363.6 -97.1 100.9 885.0 112.9 997.9
DeLonghi - 2007A-13E EUR M Net Income Minorities Depreciation Dividends cashflow Gross cashflow Change in NWC Capex Acquisitions & Divestments Other Cash Items cashflow Net cashflow 2007A 30.6 0.7 41.7 -3.0 70.0 -56.4 -31.6 0.0 -22.0 -40.1 2008A 40.1 0.2 42.6 -9.0 73.9 7.3 26.7 0.0 2.0 109.9 2009A 32.4 0.4 37.5 -9.0 61.3 91.7 -30.2 0.0 6.7 129.5 2010E 67.1 0.2 42.1 -12.0 97.5 -4.2 -45.4 0.0 2.8 50.8 2011E 93.4 0.4 48.7 -20.1 122.3 -26.6 -49.6 0.0 2.7 48.9 2012E 109.2 0.2 51.2 -26.2 134.5 -22.8 -53.1 0.0 2.4 61.0 2013E 125.0 0.4 54.3 -28.4 151.3 -20.1 -64.3 0.0 2.5 69.3
Despite the strong performance of the stock, we remain positive on DeLonghi and confirm our BUY recommendation. We move our target price to EUR 7.90/share (from EUR 5.90/share) derived by using the DCF model (WACC: 9.8%, g: 1%). At the new target price DeLonghi would trade at 5.4x and 12.6x respectively on 2011E EV/EBITDA and P/E, corresponding to a 17% discount vs. SEB at EV/EBITDA level, while in-line with its peer in terms of P/E. Our long term profitability assumptions on DeLonghi look for a modest margin erosion at gross margin level going forward (expected at 43.2% at 2014E), but with the EBITDA margin rising up to 14.4% thanks to the operating leverage. Our long term profitability is close to the top end of the guidance range of 13-15% EBITDA margin, flagged by the company during the November conf. call as a potential target in the mid-long term. We reiterate our positive view on the stock, which is backed by the expected positive news flow going forward, the excellent earnings momentum (33.9% 2010E-12E CAGR); the further estimates revision at consensus level which we believe still has to take place; and a cheap valuation as DeLonghi still currently trades with a 25% discount on 2011E EV/EBITDA based on our estimates, and a 40% discount using consensus figures (see table below), in both cases above the historical average discount of 13%.
Delonghi vs. SEB: historical discount
TP moved to EUR 7.90/share from EUR 5.90/share
Sound earnings momentum, expected positive news flow and cheap valuation should drive up the stock
Delonghi 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Aug-06
Discount 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% -60.0% Aug-09
Source: FactSet consensus; Intesa Sanpaolo Research
It is worth mentioning that DeLonghi currently has a quite inefficient capital structure since, thanks to the restructuring of the supply chain and the strict NWC management, the company has significantly reduced the financial leverage. Therefore, we highlight that a transformational acquisition pursued by respecting sound financial criteria would not only have a significant strategic repercussion (entering new markets/products or strengthening the company presence in some fast growing areas) but would also entail a better capital structure: we currently use a WACC which corresponds to the companys cost of equity. The table below summarises the sensitivity of DeLonghis fair value to a different capital structure, which goes from the current situation (almost no debt) to a D/(D+E) up to 50%, corresponding to a D/EBITDA of 3.0x calculated on 2014E EBITDA of EUR 303M: all other parameters remaining the same, by improving the companys financial leverage DeLonghis fair value would increase up to EUR 8.60/share.
A better capital structure may increase the fair value up to EUR 8.60/share
DeLonghi Fair value sensitivity to leverage D/D+E 0% 10% WACC % 9.80 7.9 9.60 8.0 9.50 9.40 9.30 9.10
8.1 8.3 8.5 8.6
We update our DCF model valuation with the new estimates and the new parameters adopted since the beginning of the year due to our periodical revisions of some technical parameters (our market risk premium moves to 5.75% from 5% but risk-free rate remains unchanged at 4%). The DCF model now returns a EUR 7.90/share fair value, from EUR 5.90/share, corresponding to a 21% potential upside vs. current market prices.
De Longhi - DCF Model (2010E-14E) EUR M EBIT 140.5 174.6 Taxes -49.9 -68.4 NOPAT 90.6 106.2 Depreciation 42.1 48.7 Goodwill amortisation 0.0 0.0 Capex -45.4 -49.6 +/- D Working Capital -4.2 -26.6 Other 0.0 0.0 FCF 83.2 78.7 10Total PV - FCFF 10-14 381.1 PV - terminal value 1,023.5 1,404.5 Enterprise value 1,404.5 Net Financial Position -117.1 Minorities -2.7 Securitisation -80.0 Employee benefits -30.5 Equity value 1,174.2 EUR/share) Target price (EUR/share) 7.9 Upside potential % 21
2012 196.2 -77.4 118.7 51.2 0.0 -53.1 -22.8 0.0 94.1
2013 215.8 -84.7 131.0 54.3 0.0 -64.3 -20.1 0.0 100.8
2014 246.4 -96.2 150.2 56.7 0.0 -67.3 -15.0 0.0 124.7
Normalized Y Terminal Value 246.4 -96.6 149.8 54.3 0.0 -54.3 -21.1 0.0 1,485.1 128.7
As mentioned above, the market multiples signal a still significant discount for DeLonghi vs. its peers, chiefly SEB. We obtain a valuation ranging from a minimum of EUR 6.70/share with the 2010E P/E, to a maximum of EUR 9.50/share with the 2011E EV/EBIT. We keep choosing the indications obtained with the EV/EBITDA multiples, returning an average fair value of EUR 8.70/share in 2010E-13E.
Market multiples - EV/sales and EV/EBITDA (2010-12) EV/Sales* EV/Sales /Sales* EV/EBITDA* EV/EBITDA /EBITDA* EV/Sales* EV/Sales* EV/EBITDA* EV/EBITDA* growth 2010E 2011E 2012E to growth 2010E 2011E 2012E to growth SEB 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 7.2 6.5 5.8 0.5 Electrolux AB 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 5.8 5.5 4.8 0.4 Munters AB 1.4 1.2 1.1 NM 13.9 9.5 8.4 1.1 Whirlpool Corp. 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 4.7 4.0 3.3 0.2 Indesit Co. S.p.A. 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.7 3.5 3.2 0.7 Arcelik A.S. 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 7.5 7.3 6.4 1.9 De'Longhi S.p.A. 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 5.7 5.1 4.5 0.3 De Longhi (B. IMI) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 5.9 4.8 4.1 0.3 Average All (ex-De Longhi) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.1 7.6 6.5 5.7 0.9 Premium/(Discount) -18.6 -21.3 -23.9 -10.1 -22.1 -25.9
Market multiples - EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA (2010-2012); (*) EV multiples is adjusted for the securitisation and employee benefits; E: estimates
Market multiples - EV/EBIT and P/E Adj. (2010E-12E) EV/EBIT* EV/EBIT* 2010E 2011E 2012E SEB 9.3 8.5 7.5 Electrolux AB 8.7 8.2 7.0 Munters AB 17.9 11.4 9.9 Whirlpool Corp. 7.3 6.0 4.9 Indesit Co. S.p.A. 6.2 6.0 5.2 Arcelik A.S. 9.6 9.5 8.2 De'Longhi S.p.A. 7.3 6.4 5.5 De Longhi (B. IMI) 8.0 6.1 5.1 Average All (ex-De Longhi) 10.3 8.7 7.6 Premium/(Discount) -23.1 -29.7 -32.1 EV/EBIT to growth 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 3.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 P/E Adj. 2011E 12.7 10.6 19.9 8.1 8.7 10.8 11.6 10.4 11.8 -11.7 PEG 2012E 11.7 9.2 17.6 8.7 7.5 9.5 10.3 8.9 10.7 -16.7 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.7
2010E 13.7 10.9 30.5 8.8 8.6 10.1 13.2 13.3 13.8 -3.4
Market multiples - EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA (2010-12); (*) EV multiples is adjusted for the securitisation and employee benefits, E: estimates
De Longhi - Market multiples valuation: EV/sales and EV/EBITDA (2010E-12E) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA 2010E 2011E 2012E 2010E 2011E Enterprise value 1,374.6 1,360.3 1,325.8 1,437.0 1,443.3 Net debt 66.3 17.4 -43.6 66.3 17.4 Securitisation 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Employee benefits -30.5 -30.5 -30.5 -30.5 -30.5 Equity value 1197.8 1232.3 1258.9 1260.2 1315.3 Value per share 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.8
2012E 1,420.9 -43.6 80.0 -30.5 1354.0 9.1
De Longhi - Market multiples valuation: EV/EBIT and P/E Adj. (2010E-12E) EV/EBIT EV/EBIT 2010E 2011E 2012E 2010E Enterprise value 1,454.0 1,522.5 1,485.3 0.0 Net debt 66.3 17.4 -43.6 0.0 Securitisation 80.0 80.0 80.0 0.0 Employee Benefits -30.5 -30.5 -30.5 0.0 Equity value 1277.2 1394.6 1418.4 1006.3 Value per share 8.5 9.3 9.5 6.7
Adj. P/E 2011E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1101.4 7.4
2012E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1168.1 7.8
De Longhi - Key figures Sector Household Goods REUTERS CODE DLG.MI Values per share (EUR) 2009A No. ordinary shares (M) 150 No. NC saving/preferred shares (M) Total no. of shares (M) 150 Adj. EPS 0.30 CFPS 0.47 BVPS 4.59 Dividend Ord 0.08 Dividend SAV Nc 0.00 Income statement (EUR M) 2009A Sales 1403.95 EBITDA 142.88 EBIT 92.29 Pre-tax income 57.19 Net income 32.39 Adj. net income 45.49 Cash flow (EUR M) 2009A Net income before minorities 32.79 Depreciation and provisions 37.49 Change in working capital 91.72 Operating cash flow 161.99 Capital expenditure -30.22 Other (uses of Funds) 6.73 Free cash flow 138.51 Dividends and equity changes -8.97 Net cash flow 129.54 Balance sheet (EUR M) 2009A Net capital employed 805.60 of which associates 0.00 Net debt/-cash 117.10 Minorities 2.75 Net equity 685.75 Market cap 972.50 Minorities value 0.00 Enterprise value (*) 1089.60 Stock market ratios (x) 2009A Adj. P/E 21.38 P/CEPS 13.92 P/BVPS 1.42 Dividend yield (% ord) 1.23 Dividend yield (% sav) EV/sales 0.78 EV/EBITDA 7.63 EV/EBIT 11.81 EV/CE 1.35 D/EBITDA 0.82 D/EBIT 1.27 2009A Profitability & financial ratios (%) EBITDA margin 10.18 EBIT margin 6.57 Tax rate 42.66 Net income margin 2.31 ROE 4.72 Debt/equity ratio 0.17 Growth (%) Sales EBITDA EBIT Pre-tax income Net income Adj. net income EUR/Share Mkt price EUR/Share Target price EUR/Share 2010E 0.49 0.73 4.96 0.13 0.00 2010E 2010E 1620.34 188.63 140.50 107.70 67.14 73.14 2010E 67.34 42.13 -4.15 105.32 -45.37 2.81 62.76 -11.96 50.80 2010E 810.18 0.00 66.30 2.95 740.94 972.50 0.00 1038.80 2010E 13.30 8.90 1.31 2.07 0.64 5.51 7.39 1.28 0.35 0.47 2010E 11.64 8.67 37.47 4.14 9.06 0.09 2010E 15.41 32.02 52.24 88.31 107.28 60.78 Ordinary 6.51 7.90 2011E 0.62 0.95 5.45 0.175 0.00 2011E 1769.86 223.31 174.64 154.26 93.41 93.41 2011E 93.81 48.67 -26.63 115.85 -49.56 2.73 69.03 -20.14 48.88 2011E 834.96 0.00 17.42 3.35 814.20 972.50 0.00 989.91 2011E 10.41 6.84 1.19 2.69 0.56 4.43 5.67 1.19 0.08 0.10 2011E 12.62 9.87 39.19 5.28 11.47 0.02 2011E 9.23 18.39 24.30 43.23 39.12 27.71 Rating BUY 2012E 0.73 1.07 6.00 0.19 0.00 2012E 1897.66 247.39 196.15 180.77 109.24 109.24 2012E 109.44 51.24 -22.76 137.91 -53.13 2.38 87.16 -26.15 61.01 2012E 857.24 0.00 -43.59 3.55 897.28 972.50 0.00 928.90 2012E 8.90 6.06 1.08 2.92 0.49 3.75 4.74 1.08 -0.18 -0.22 2012E 2012E 13.04 10.34 39.46 5.76 12.17 -0.05 2012E 7.22 10.78 12.32 17.19 16.94 16.94 2013E 0.84 1.20 6.65 0.19 0.00 2013E 2010.81 270.04 215.75 206.56 125.03 125.03 2013E 125.43 54.29 -20.15 159.57 -64.35 2.48 97.71 -28.40 69.31 2013E 884.96 0.00 -112.90 3.95 993.91 972.50 0.00 859.60 2013E 7.78 5.42 0.98 2.96 0.43 3.18 3.98 0.97 -0.42 -0.52 2013E 13.43 10.73 39.28 6.22 12.58 -0.11 2013E 5.96 9.16 9.99 14.27 14.46 14.46
(*) EV = Mkt cap+ Net Debt + Minorities Value - Associates A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research
De Longhi 9 February 2011 Disclaimer
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Valuation methodology (long-term horizon: 12M) The Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Equity Research Department values the companies for which it assigns recommendations as follows: We obtain a fair value using a number of valuation methodologies including: discounted cash flow method (DCF), dividend discount model (DDM), embedded value methodology, return on allocated capital, break-up value, asset-based valuation method, sum-of-the-parts, and multiples-based models (for example PE, P/BV, PCF, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc.). The financial analysts use the above valuation methods alternatively and/or jointly at their discretion. The assigned target price may differ from the fair value, as it also takes into account overall market/sector conditions, corporate/market events, and corporate specifics (ie, holding discounts) reasonably considered to be possible drivers of the companys share price performance. These factors may also be assessed using the methodologies indicated above. Equity rating key: (long-term horizon: 12M) In its recommendations, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA uses an absolute rating system, which is not related to market performance and whose key is reported below: Equity rating key (long-term horizon: 12M) LongDefinition Long-term rating Definition BUY If the target price is 20% higher than the market price ADD If the target price is 10%-20% higher than the market price HOLD If the target price is 10% below or 10% above the market price REDUCE If the target price is 10%-20% lower than the market price SELL If the target price is 20% lower than the market price The investment rating and target price for this stock have been suspended as there is not a sufficient RATING SUSPENDED fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock. NO RATING The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Intesa Sanpaolo is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. TARGET PRICE The market price that the analyst believes the share may reach within a one-year time horizon MARKET PRICE Closing price on the day before the issue date of the report, as indicated on the first page, except where otherwise indicated Historical recommendations and target price trends (long-term horizon: 12M) Target price and market price trend (-1Y) Historical recommendations and target price trend (-1Y) Rating Date TP Mkt Price 25-Mar-10 BUY 4.50 3.08 30-Apr-10 BUY 4.50 3.19 12-Aug-10 BUY 4.50 3.69 2-Sep-10 BUY 4.80 3.80 17-Nov-10 BUY 5.90 4.50
Equity rating allocations (long-term horizon: 12M) Intesa Sanpaolo Research Rating Distribution (at November 2010) BUY Number of companies subject to recommendations: 95 (**) Total Equity Research Coverage % 38 of which Intesa Sanpaolos Clients % (*) 64 ADD HOLD REDUCE SELL 1 100
(*) Companies on behalf of whom Intesa Sanpaolo and the other companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group have provided corporate and Investment banking services in the last 12 months; percentage of clients in each rating category. (**) The total number of companies covered is 102
Valuation methodology (short-term horizon: 3M) Our short-term investment ideas are based on ongoing special market situations, including among others: spreads between share categories; holding companies vs. subsidiaries; stub; control chain reshuffling; stressed capital situations; potential extraordinary deals (including capital increase/delisting/extraordinary dividends); and preys and predators. Investment ideas are presented either in relative terms (e.g. spread ordinary vs. savings; holding vs. subsidiaries) or in absolute terms (e.g. preys). The companies to which we assign short-term ratings are under regular coverage by our research analysts and, as such, are subject to fundamental analysis and long-term recommendations. The main differences attain to the time horizon considered (monthly vs. yearly) and
definitions (short-term long/short vs. long-term buy/sell). Note that the short-term relative recommendations of these investment ideas may differ from our long-term recommendations. We monitor the monthly performance of our short-term investment ideas and follow them until their closure. Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M) Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M) ShortShort-term rating LONG SHORT Definition Stock price expected to rise or outperform within three months from the time the rating was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event Stock price expected to fall or underperform within three months from the time the rating was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event
PR Log - Global Press Release Distribution
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