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Toy Markets in the World

June 2009
Copyright 2008. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.

Content

Methodology Toy Markets in the World Top 10 Countries Impact of the GFC Evaluating the future Summary
Proprietary and Confidential

Objective

The main objective of this report is to leverage NPDs knowledge and expertise in the toy industry to provide toy marketers an estimate of the global toy markets size. Because The NPD Group already tracks toy sales in more than 12 countries, we have developed a market estimate statistical model based on accurate tracking information. It's a logical place to start, as some of these countries have been covered by The NPD Group for a long period.

Methodology

Statistical models from the 12 existing markets in which NPD already operates:
Toys Consumer Panel: Australia, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, Spain, U.K., U.S. Toys Point-of-Sale Panel: Austria, Belgium, Poland, Portugal 51%

of the world toys market

We divided the toy market into two sections and created two models, based on the GDP/Inhabitant:

Kids (0-14 Years Old)

(Number of Kids) X ($ per Kid) Based on GDP/Inhabitant In U.S. $

15 Years +

% Consumption Based on GDP/Inhabitant In U.S. $
Models are based on GDP/Inhabitant
$/Kid by country, based on GDP/Inhabitant

350 300

% Market to 15 Years old +, based on GDP/Inhabitant

250 200

% Market to 15+ (% Value)

$/Kid ($)

150 100

000 GDP/Inhabitant ($)

0% 000 GDP/Inhabitant ($)

All models start from 0

Example: Poland

Sources of information

All calculations have been made in U.S. $. Exchange rates are as of December 2007 & December 2008.
In 2008, NPD launched new online panels in Europe. What is the NPD Online Panel?
A panel of pre-recruited individuals, ages 16 and older, who have agreed to participate in an Internet-based research program in the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Characteristics of the panel:
Individuals 2 weeks recall
Year-round reporting Better coverage Larger samples Greater depth
Better projections resulting in better estimates Ability to interact with the consumer
Ad-hoc questions or follow-up research (pre-qualified sample)
Source: The NPD Group / EuroToys / Consumer Tracking Service
Impact of the online panel launching
We can now be certain we reach those people who buy the majority of toys: the core parent age groups. We also have improved reporting for young people who often purchase for themselves. Much better coverage of video games purchases leads to a category estimate of about the same size as Traditional Toys. (These proportions are about the same for the US market.) No dramatic changes to the market structure of traditional toys, but we notice some shifts in favour of low price point and fringe categories that tend to be forgotten in a household diary Thanks to better representation of HH with children and younger people we see a higher share of purchases by parents and self, and less of a grandparent bias Generally the top retailers have a less dominating share thanks to improved reporting for all types of outlets, including gift shops, baby stores etc.

Toy markets in the world

Worth $78 billion, the world toy market is slightly declining
World Toy Market (billion $)
Impact of the exchange rate fluctuations
: pactt: pac n IIm b n m 4 --$2.4b $2
Impact of the exchange rate fluctuations : Summary
In 2008 USD, the world toy market adds up to: 2007

(2008 Exchange rates)

2008 $78.091 bn +2.3%

World Toy Market

$76.299
In 2007 USD, the world toy market adds up to: 2006 World Toy Market $78.666 2007

(2006 Exchange rates)

$80.514 bn +2.3%
In Current USD, the world toy market adds up to: 2007

(2007 Exchange rates)

$78.666

$78.091 bn -0.8%

ctt:: IImpa c n mpa b n --$2.4 b $2 4
Impact of the exchange rate fluctuations: local situations are different
Australian Toy Market (billion $)
ctt:: IImpa cm mpa4 m --$$37
French Toy Market (billion $)
t:: pac t IImpa cm m 5 --$19 5m $19
At the opposite of Europe, exchange rates will lower the decrease in the Japan Toy Market, when expressed in USD
Push from Asian countries
World Toy Market by Region (share comparison)

ToyMarket 2007

Europe 32% Asia 24% Latin Am.& Carib. 7%

Africa 4% Oceania 2%

ToyMarket 2008
Asia 27% Northern America 30% Latin Am.& Carib. 8% Europe 29%

Northern America 31%

Size: US$78.666bn

Size: US$78.091bn 20

China, India and Mexico move up in the list
2008 Summary Table for countries ranked 1-10
CountryRank UnitedStates Japan China UnitedKingdom France Germany Brazil India Mexico Italy Country ToyMarketSize2008 2008(million$) $21,650.83 $5,823.62 $4,527.07 $4,127.57 $3,985.74 $3,189.37 $2,091.94 $1,939.60 $1,794.85 $1,703.22 CountryinWorldToy Market 2008 27.7% 7.5% 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 4.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2007 28.4% 7.6% 4.5% 7.3% 5.4% 4.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% SpendingperKid KidsPopulation 2008($) $281 $286 $17 $348 $293 $223 $38 $5 $53 $185 2008(million) 61.6 17.4 267.4 10.3 11.9 11.4 52.9 361.4 32.6 7.9 Marketto15 yearsold+ 2008 20% 15% 1% 13% 13% 21% 3% 0% 4% 14%
Indicates the presence of a tracking service from NPD
Mexico GDP/Capita is expected to drop by 25% in 2009
Pre-fall was strong hopes for Christmas

Seasonality Jan-Oct08

55% 59% 48% 57% 37% 49% 64% 58% 54% 42% 57%

% Chg in value

: Source: NPD POS data for 2008 (EU and AU); and NPD Consumer Tracking for U.S.

Slow start of the season

Weekly Sales - Total Toy Market - % Value Change in 2008 vs. 2007
Week 44 UK France Germany Spain Belgium Italy Portugal Australia 2.0% -10.0% -5.0% -2.2% -21.8% -7.7% -42.2% -2.1%
Week 45 -3.0% 2.7% 14.0% 14.7% 6.0% -9.7% 16.0% 2.2%
Week 46 -12.8% 4.9% 0.0% 20.2% -1.9% -14.8% -15.0% 10.9%
Week 47 -16.3% -8.1% -4.0% -13.8% -17.2% -12.5% -16.2% -2.9%
Week 48 -8.1% -9.6% -3.0% -6.7% -12.8% -9.9% -12.9% -4.2%
Week 49 -6.1% -8.8% 7.0% -14.0% 28.2% -1.5% -6.4% -2.1%
Week 50 -6.4% -6.3% -2.0% -16.6% -6.1% 10.0% -11.5% 14.9%
Week 51 -17.2% -10.7% -6.0% -12.5% -13.8% -0.7% -14.2% 4.3%
Week 52 62.3% 69.1% 0.0% 15.7% 41.5% 116.8% 154.6% 93.9%
Cut in Cash Interest Rates:
Toy markets suffered on the Christmas season: low consumption until the last week!
Week 52 62.3% 69.1% 111.0% 15.7% 41.5% 116.8% 154.6% 93.9%
.4bn $10 ack AU s P u Bon
Week 52/2008 had 2 more selling days prior to Christmas than W52/2007
Retailers offered large discounts
Without some strong licenses, trend would have been worse
Importance of Licenses in the Total Toy Market (% Value)
USA*: Oct-Dec 2008 vs. 2007 : Source: NPD POS data for 2008 (EU and AU); and NPD Consumer Tracking for U.S.
Why this delayed and low consumption?
No commonalities in the top selling items across the countries
Top 5 Selling Items Ranked in Value
Kidizoom Camera Fur Real Biscuit My Lovin Pup Ben 10 15Cm Action Baby Annabell Doll Kid Tough Digital Camera Asst
Vtech Hasbro Bandai Zapf Creation Mattel
Kidizoom Digitalkamera Ab 4J Playmobil Christmas Grosser Gelaendewagen Wer War S R C Bulldozer Mit Motor
Vtech Playmobil Lego Ravensburger Lego
Mickey Clubhouse Playset Mack Mega Camion Aventuras

Famosa Mattel

Digital Camera Pyramide V Smile Pocket Manege V Smile Jeux Educatifs
Vtech Playmobil Vtech Playmobil Vtech
Cicciobello Bua Samby - San Bernardo Barbie Forever Il Camper Baby Amore Pipi Popo Mylife Console New Pack

Preziosi-Gig Preziosi-Gig Mattel Preziosi-Gig Preziosi-Gig
Nenuco Peluqueria C Nenuco Ni Famosa Reloj Omnitrix Dx Gormiti 2 Atomic - La Isla Bandai Giochi Preziosi
Computador Noddy Barbie Muses In Training Asst

Lexibook Mattel

Scrabble Original Zab Mlp Kucyk Interakt R Owy

Mattel Hasbro Toys

Razor Ripstik Casterboard Elmo Live Intex Pool Frame Set 15ft Round Trampolin 8Inch Ben 10 Alien Force Dx Omnitrix
Funtastic Mattel Hunter Over. Action Sports Jnh
Boneca Nenuco Escola C 2 Bone Famosa Nenuco Peluqueria C Nenuco Ni Famosa V Smile Consola Concentra
Bar.Pawdz.Domek Barbie J9507 Mattel Kubu Interaktywny Bionicle Mistika 08 Imc Toys Lego
The main answer: No blockbusters!
1. No commonalities in the top selling items across the countries 2. Some manufacturers / brands are highly successful (Lego, Ben 10) across ALL countries 3. Units per selling items decreased from 2006 to 2008, with the lowest level in 2008 4. Consumers purchased late in the season, and took advantage of the discounts / promotions (issue with the perception of the price?) 5. Consumption in other categories is strong (Video-Games )
So the impact of the GFC?
Global Financial Crisis Global Financial Crisis There is no doubt the GFC played a There is no doubt the GFC played a role in the decrease of the overall toy role in the decrease of the overall toy market, as the total market size has market, as the total market size has been impacted by the strong been impacted by the strong changes in exchange rates (due to changes in exchange rates (due to the GFC) the GFC) On the consumption side, not much On the consumption side, not much of the decrease could be attributed of the decrease could be attributed to the GFC; but more to the lack of to the GFC; but more to the lack of hot products, pushing purchasers in hot products, pushing purchasers in the stores, especially at the the stores, especially at the beginning of the season beginning of the season
The Toy market is expected to decrease in 2009!
Although most of the markets record an increase in 2009, rates are lower than in 2008

Source: NPD PoS Panels

Asia will continue to grow in 2009

ToyMarket 2009

Europe 29% Asia 27%
Asia 29% Northern America 30%

Northern America 30%

Latin Am.& Carib. 8%

Latin Am.& Carib. 7%

Europe 28%
4 Key Challenges in the World of NPD
Proposing true new products (takes time and never sure of the result). Proposing true new products (takes time and never sure of the result).
One of the direction could be to keep registering the Toy Industry in One of the direction could be to keep registering the Toy Industry in the technology path. Another direction could be to maintain a retro shelf-space, the technology path. Another direction could be to maintain a retro shelf-space, to keep timeless aspect of Toys. This will also anchor Toys in Grand-parents/Parents world to keep timeless aspect of Toys. This will also anchor Toys in Grand-parents/Parents world
Develop event based sales (retailer catalogue, in-store promotion ) Develop event based sales (retailer catalogue, in-store promotion )
especially at the beginning of the season. especially at the beginning of the season. One other option could be to link Easter sales to Christmas sales One other option could be to link Easter sales to Christmas sales
Develop the collection effect Develop the collection effect
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The ultimate challenge. The ultimate challenge.
. is to sell toys at full price at Christmas while containing the cost of goods. is to sell toys at full price at Christmas while containing the cost of goods
Philippe Guinaudeau : +295 : philippe_guinaudeau@npd.com