April 2009

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY

514.879.2529

S E C O N D M O N E T A R Y B L A ST H I T S E U R O / U SD E X C HA N G E RA T E
The Federal Reserve surprised the exchange market this past March 18 by announcing the aggressive injection of new liquidity in the economy, including the purchase of $300 billion of U.S. Treasuries. The news prompted the euro to react violently against the greenback. However, we are of the opinion that the greenback will resume its positive momentum against the euro. The European currencys recent appreciation reflects the fact that the ECB still lags behind the other central banks. Indeed, the European economy is certainly not faring better than others. Quantitative monetary easing is imminent in Europe and will drive down long-term rates and narrow yield spreads with the United States. Judging from the leading economic indicators of the G7 and China, the recent rise in commodity prices is most probably not supported by fundamental factors but rather by wishful thinking concerning recovery. Hence, at the global level, it still seems too soon for the cyclical currencies, including the Canadian dollar, to begin a sustained rally against the greenback. Indeed, this should not occur before the second half of the year.

Stfane Marion

Strategist and Chief Economist

Yanick Desnoyers

Assistant Chief Economist

Pierre Lapointe,

Market Strategist& Quantitative Analyst

Paul-Andr Pinsonnault,

Senior Fixed-Income Economist

Marc Pinsonneault,

Senior Economist

Marco Lettieri,

Economist

NBF Currency Outlook*

Current 2009 QQQ4 2010QQ2009

07-Apr

USD/CAD US cents per CAD EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GBP/USD AUD/CAD
1.238 0.808 1.327 99.9 0.714 1.475 0.883
1.26 0.794 1.0.64 1.45 0.81
1.25 1.23 1.20 0.800 0.813 0.833 1.0.66 1.47 0.83 1.0.68 1.50 0.84 1.0.70 1.52 0.84
1.19 0.84 1.0.72 1.54 0.86
1.07 0.937 1.0.85 1.85 0.90
1.25 0.80 1.0.65 1.48 0.81
* forecasts for end of quarter and year average
Source: NBF Economic Research
Copyright, National Bank Financial, 2003

Second major downturn

The weekly nominal U.S. dollar index retreated again in March, as it did back in December 2008. Does this move mark the end of the greenbacks bull market begun last summer?
1) Greenback retreating again
Weekly nominal U.S. dollar index
.98.96.94.92.90.88.86.84.82.80.2007 2008
government securities and an additional $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities.
3) Violent reaction by U.S. long rates
Interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds
4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2008M01 2008M04 2008M07 2008M10 2009M01

Episode 1

Episode 2
NBF Economy and Strategy, Global Insight
NBF Economy and Strategy, Global Insight, JP Morgan
The greenback has fallen for three straight weeks, thereby recording its longest downturn in about eight months since the onset of its bull market.
2) Slightly longer downturn
Weekly moves by greenback since last summers low
0 -1 -2 -3 -4 8/01/08 9/05/08 10/10/08 11/14/08 12/19/08 1/23/09 2/27/09

Weekly change (%)

All this sparked a sharp reaction on the yield curve of U.S. government securities. Long rates fell 50 basis points, their largest drop since October 1987. The Fed, then, has clearly resolved to maintain long rates low in the aim of kick-starting the housing market.

Second monetary blast

This constitutes the second episode of its kind. The first was orchestrated by the Fed back in December when it decided to lower its policy rate within a range of 0% to 0.25%. This time, the U.S. monetary authority is buying government securities, having exhausted the possibilities of its traditional instrument of intervention.

4) Second blast from Fed

Nominal bilateral exchange rate between euro and U.S. dollar

EUR/USD

Downturn 1

Downturn 2

Present bull cycle = 8 months

Number of weeks

1.56 1.52 1.48 1.44 1.40 1.36 1.32 1.28 1.24 2008M08 2008M09 2008M10 2008M11 2008M12 2009M01 2009M02 2009M03
Fed cuts policy rate to 0%-0.25% Fed announces purchase of U.S. Treasuries
Overall, however, the decline is similar in amplitude to the one registered last December, that is, just shy of 4%.

Fed crushes rates

This recent backslide is not a chance occurrence, however. The Fed surprised the markets this past March 18 by announcing its intention to proceed with an aggressive injection of more than $1000 billion of new liquidity in the economy. More specifically, the U.S. monetary authority plans to purchase no less than $300 billion of federal
To be sure, the move took the exchange market by surprise, judging from the violent reaction it triggered. Indeed, it propelled the euro/USD nominal bilateral exchange rate over the 1.36 mark.
This said, the euro seems to have reacted more sharply to the two last U.S. monetary shockwaves than other currencies have (see Chart 5). Neither is this a matter of chance.
5) Euro: sharper reaction against greenback
30-day change in EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates

7) Hand in hand

Euro/USD exchange rate and U.S.-Euro 10-year rate spread
1.68 EUR/USD 1.64 1.60 1.56 1.52 1.48 1.44 1.40

Spread (p.p.) 1.0

Yield spread (R)
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
0 -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 2008M01
1.36 1.32 1.28 1.24 1.20 2008M08 2008M09 2008M10 2008M11 2008M12

Euro (L)

0.0 -0.1 -0.2 2009M01 2009M02 2009M03

2008M04

2008M07

2008M10

2009M01
Long rates front and centre
Long rates in Europe have remained relatively stable in the meantime, hovering at around 3%, while those in the United States have moved considerably.

6) Still sliding in Europe?
Daily rate on 10-year U.S. government and euro-zone bonds
7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.2008
The ECB, instead, has yet to expand money supply by purchasing government bonds. Further, it just disappointed the financial markets with a timid policy-rate cut of only 25 basis points whereas the markets had expected a rate reduction twice as large. Consequently, the only factor sustaining the euro at present is the market rate spread.

Once again in tow

As it turns out, there are really no fundamental reasons to purchase euros at present. Europes banking woes are far from being fixed and the reduction in the ECBs policy rate is no way close to being enough.
8) European cycle hit hard
Euro-zone and U.S. new manufacturing orders (U.S. data covers non-military capital goods excluding aircraft)

United States

% (y/y)

United States Euro zone

Euro zone

0 -5 -10

Long-rate spreads seem to afford a strong explanation for the brusque moves on the nominal bilateral exchange rate between the United States and Europe. As illustrated in Chart 7, the exchange rate has moved in tandem with these spreads. In this regard, however, we are of the opinion that European long rates have not bottomed out yet. While the Fed pursues quantitative easing very aggressively, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have also begun to enact such a policy by buying securities on the market.

-15 -20 -25 -30 -35

-17.8%

-32.0%

2008 2009
The cyclical downturn is way worse in Europe than in the United States, with the old continents manufacturing sector experiencing a veritable descent into hell. While new orders, a leading indicator, have begun to slow down their decline in the United States (-17.8%), they continue to be in freefall in Europe (-32%).
Under these circumstances and with inflation decreasing relentlessly, the ECB, too, will have no choice but follow the lead of its counterparts and resort to quantitative easing. The euros recent appreciation, then, reflects the fact that the ECB is lagging behind the other central banks. Indeed, the European economy is certainly not faring better than others. Consequently, we are of the opinion that the greenback will resume its positive momentum against the euro despite its recent depreciation. Indeed, once quantitative easing is enacted in Europe, long-term rates should drop and yield spreads with the United States should narrow.

10) Sustained or not?

Exchange rate of cyclical currencies

1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 08M07 08M08 08M09 08M10 08M11 08M12 09M01 09M02 09M03
Exchange rate relative to U.S. dollar

Loonie

+ 5.7%
Aussie + 11.0% Kiwi + 17.7%
Loonie on standby for take-off?
What can be said about the Canadian dollar? Since the start of the year, the Canadian dollar has not moved much against the other currencies, except for gaining 7.5% on the yen.

9) Loonie so far in 2009

Move against other currencies from January 1 to April 1, 2009
There is no denying that the Feds massive liquidity injection has revived fears of seeing inflation shoot up in future. However, another key factor explains the surge in the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
11) Oceania: circumstantial flare-up?
10-year rate of governments with cyclical currencies

7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5

New Zealand

Australia

4.5 4.0 3.5
2.0 -2 -4 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -1.6 1.3

3.0 2.5 2008M01

Canada
2008M04 2008M07 2008M10 2009M01 2009M04
However, the situation appears to be a little different compared with the March trough. The aggressive action by the Fed seems to have improved the tone among cyclical currencies, particularly the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which have since progressed in double digits against the greenback. The Canadian dollar has nonetheless gained nearly 6% against the greenback since last months low. Might this be the start of a sustained recovery by cyclical currencies?
Certain economic statistics have recently come in above expectations and this drove up long rates in Oceania. While deflationary fears persist despite the Feds injections and several central banks are endeavouring to contain their governments longterm rates at the federal level, long rates in Oceania suddenly took a turn skyward (50 basis points in Australia and almost 100 in New Zealand). In our opinion, this reaction will be short-lived and exchange rates in Oceania should sink back to where they were in very short order. In fact, under present conditions, a jump in long rates comes close to being an aberration. After all, not only is there an absence of inflation, but the central banks are even printing money in order to counter deflationary risks.

Still too soon

At the global level, it still seems too soon for the cyclical currencies, including the Canadian dollar, to begin a sustained rally against the greenback. Once again, the action taken by the Fed has resuscitated the price of certain commodities, including crude oil. However, here too, the advance remains extremely fragile, seeing how it fails to rest on solid ground. For example, crude oil inventories are at a 16-year high in the United States and global demand for energy has certainly not taken off again suddenly.

12) Still no certainty regarding recovery
Price of crude oil and leading economic indicators Price of crude oil
30 2008M01 2008M04 2008M07 2008M10 2009M01

-8 --12 8

Conclusion
The Fed surprised the exchange markets this past March 18 by announcing the aggressive injection of new liquidity in the economy, including the purchase of U.S. Treasuries. The news prompted the euro to react violently against the greenback. This said, the only factor sustaining the euro presently is the market yield spread, but we believe that long-term interest rates have not yet struck bottom in Europe. The ECB, too, will have no choice but resort to quantitative easing. The euros recent appreciation, then, reflects the fact that the ECB is lagging behind the other central banks. Indeed, the European economy is certainly not faring better than others. Judging from the leading economic indicators of the G7 and China, the recent rise in commodity prices most likely does not rest on fundamental factors but rather on wishful thinking concerning recovery. Hence, at the global level, it still seems too soon for the cyclical currencies, including the Canadian dollar, to begin a sustained rally against the greenback. Indeed, this should not occur before the second half of the year.
Leading indicator (12-month growth)

$/barrel

NBF Economy and Strategy, Datastream
Judging from the leading economic indicators of the G7 and China, the rise in commodity prices is most likely not supported by fundamental factors, but rather by wishful thinking concerning recovery. We are of the opinion that it is still too early to predict a global economic recovery in the coming months, even though certain statistics seem to have turned less negative. The dynamics are still not those of a bonafide recovery, which we can expect to see instead in the second half of the year, according to our baseline scenario.
Yanick Desnoyers Assistant Chief Economist 514 879-3140 yanick.desnoyers@fbn.ca
1.64 1.60 1.56 1.52 1.00 1.48 0.96 1.44 1.40 1.36 1.32 1.28 1.24 07M01 07M04 07M07 07M10 08M01 08M04 08M07 08M10 09M01 09M04 0.92 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.76 07M01

1.12 1.08 1.04

Canadian dollar

NBF Economy and Strategy

1.00 0.96 0.92 0.88

Australian dollar

100 95

0.84 0.80 0.76 0.72 0.68

07M04 07M07 07M10 08M01 08M04 08M07 08M10 09M01 09M04

0.60 07M01

2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 07M01
.84.80.76.72.68.64.60.56.52

New Zealand dollar

.48 07M01
General: National Bank Financial (NBF) is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on Canadian stock exchanges. The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of these particulars and are not to be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Canadian Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report in Canada, NBF accepts responsibility for its contents. To make further inquiry related to this report or effect any transaction, Canadian residents should contact their NBF Investment advisor. U.S. Residents: NBF Securities (USA) Corp., an affiliate of NBF, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report, subject to any terms set out above. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only through NBF Securities (USA) Corp. U.K. Residents: In respect of the distribution of this report to UK residents, NBF has approved this financial promotion for the purposes of Section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. NBF and/or its parent and/or any companies within or affiliates of the National Bank of Canada group and/or any of their directors, officers and employees may have or may have had interests or long or short positions in, and may at any time make purchases and/or sales as principal or agent, or may act or may have acted as market maker in the relevant securities or related financial instruments discussed in this report, or may act or have acted as investment and/or commercial banker with respect thereto. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be repeated in the future. The investments contained in this report are not available to private customers. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for the securities described herein nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information is only for distribution to non-private customers in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the rules of the Regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent of National Bank Financial.

Head Family Genealogy Notes

Missouri

Mark B. Arslan 407 Highlands Lake Drive Cary, NC 27518-9167 marslan@nc.rr.com Head Web Site: http://arslanmb.org/head/head.html 27 January 2008
MO, State Death Index {10886}
4 Dec 1917 Morehead, Phenella female, widowed, occupation: housekeeper b. 30 Sep 1840, MO d. Moberly, Randolph Co., MO cause: cerebral hemorrhage buried @ Moberly father: Waller Head (b. VA) mother: Hardenia Garth (b. VA) informant: Mrs. A. J. McHugh [(#5483)] certificate # 42400 #548
Benton Co., Marriages {18121}
27 Feb 1859 Davis, James C. Head, Catharine A. filed in Book A, p. 262
13 Mar 1860 Kelly, Thomas G. Head, Lavinia Berretta filed in Book A, p. 276
Boone Co., Marriages {4131}
1 May 1855 Price, Edwin W. Bradford, Kittie E. Head, Charles W. McElwrath, Elmon E. #5A1

8 May 1884

Callaway Co., Marriages {10121}
21 Sep 1864 Gray, J. Wellington Head, Clara Elizabeth
Clay Co., Marriages {3906}
2 Apr 1844 Boze, Bird Payne, Sarah
17 Dec 1845 Hicks, James M. Payne, Susan M.
Cole Co., Marriages {4128}
26 Jul 1860 King, Thomas B. Chiles, Emma A.
Henry Co., Windsor Twp., Laurel Oak Cemetery {18119}
Head, Charles Waller Dr. Head, Mora E. McElwrath Head, Waller J. Head, Alfred William Head, Mary Head, Raymond b. 30 Jan 1855 b. 1858 b. 1887 b. 17 Oct 1889 b. 1892 b. 1894 d. 11 Jan 1932 d. 1905 d. 1945 d. 31 Aug 1957 d. 1948 d. 1920 #7A5 #7A5/1 #7A51 #7A52 #7A53 #7A54
Henry Co., Springfield Twp., Mount Olivet Cemetery {18120}
Located in Section 23 of T42 R24. Gray, Clara Elizabeth Head Gray, J. Wellington, Dr. b. 22 Mar 1845 b. 20 Feb 1840 d. 12 Jun 1919 d. 17 Jun 1918 #7A4 #7A4/1
History of Henry County, Missouri, by Eul W. Lamkin (Historical Publishing Company, 1919), p. 565 (Joseph W. Gray) {18114}
Joseph W. Gray - The Gray family in Henry County is one of the oldest and most distinguished in this section of the State, and was founded here in 1836 when the grandparents of Joseph W. Gray came to Henry County and entered the land where the old Gray homestead is now located and which the subject of this sketch is now cultivating. This old family has also contributed a descendant to the service of the Nation in the great World War, a son of Joseph W. Gray having been the first private soldier from Henry County to die at Camp Doniphan. Joseph W. Gray was born at Windsor, Missouri, October 15, 1871, the son of Dr. J. W. and Clara E. (Head) Gray, who were parents of six children, as follow: Effie E. Cecil, Springfield township; Dr. Alfred A., a practicing physician, Calhoun, Missouri; Joseph W., of this review; Charles V., Hollister, Missouri; Harry P., a veterinarian at Chilhowee, Missouri; Mrs. Clara Bennett, Long Beach, California. Dr. J. W. Gray was born in Henry County February 20, 1840, the son of Rev. W. A. and Mary (Loftis) Gray, both of whom were born in Kentucky. Rev. W. A. Gray first came to Missouri in 1835 and taught school. In 1836 Rev. W. A. Gray removed with his family to Henry County and entered land in sections 14, 15, 22 and 23, Springfield township. He followed farming during the remainder of his life while preaching as a minister of the Baptist Church. Nine children were born to Rev. W. A. and Mary Gray, of whom Dr. J. W. Gray was the eldest. Doctor Gray was educated in the St. Louis College of Medicine and began the practice of his profession in 1863 near Lincoln, Benton County, Missouri. He located in Windsor in 1865 and practiced in this city for a period of twelve years. He then, in 1876, came to the Gray homestead and practiced his profession while looking after his farming interests, retiring from active practice in 1913. He made his home on the old homestead until his death on June 17, 1918. Mrs. Clara Gray was born March 22, 1845, in Benton County, Missouri, the daughter of Dr. Alfred and Rhoda (Vincent) Head, natives of Virginia. Doctor Head was practicing his profession in Benton County during the Civil War. Joseph W. Gray received his education in the district school and the Clinton Academy, taught by Professor Lamkin. He began for himself in 1891 and was engaged in farming until 1901. He then went to Montana and spent a year there, after which he purchased a general store at Roseland, Missouri. He conducted this store until 1906 and then sold out. He clerked in the Red Front Dry Goods Store at Clinton until 1907 and was then engaged as traveling salesman with the George W. Perry Rubber Company until 1909. Since 1909 he has been engaged in tilling the home farm of 240 acres. Mr. Gray was married October 26, 1893, to Miss Ruth A. Phelps, who was born August 1, 1875, in Henry County, Missouri, the daughter of David and Louise (Moore) Phelps, natives of near Belleville, Illinois. The Phelps family came to Johnson County in 1872 and came to Henry County, Missouri, in 1874, and Mr. and Mrs. Phelps now reside in Calhoun. Seven children have been born to Joseph W. and Ruth A. Gray, as follow: Guy P., born May 19, 1895, and departed this life at Camp Doniphan, Oklahoma, November 30, 1917, while an enlisted soldier in the service of the National Army, his life being the first to be given by Henry County in defense of the freedom of the world - he died a soldier; Ruth, born January 20, 1900, and died January 28, 1900; Joseph, born April 9, 1902; Eugene, born April 14, 1904; Mary L., born November 17, 1905; Wilma, born March 4, 1909, died May 16, 1918; Clara B., born August 29, 1910. Mr. Gray is a Democrat and has long been prominent in the affairs of his party in Henry County. In 1912 he was elected to the office of township tax collector and served for two years. In 1915 he was elected township assessor, an office which he is now capably filling. He is a stockholder of the Farmers Cooperative Company and is keenly interested in all worthy civic movements.

Mr. Gray is a Mason, his father before him having been a charter member of the Windsor Masonic Lodge. lie is affiliated with the Modern Woodmen of America. He and Mrs. Gray are members of the Baptist Church.
Howard Co., Marriages {3912}
22 Dec 1835 Blakey, Benjamin B. Payne, Marietta C. 17 Feb 1848 Tyre, Abraham Chiles, Sarah Martha

#571 #51B

12 May 1853 Medley, James W. Blakey, Sarah W. 24 Sep 1855 Hicks, James M. Payne, Panelope S.

#271/1

12 Dec 1855 Ewing, H. C. Childs, Georgia E. 23 Sep 1858 Rucker, Franklin H. Thompson, Amanda Kate Hughes, Samuel T. Hughes, Laura C.

#572 #553

19 Feb 1863
22 Aug 1865 Gilkey, Benjamin T. Hughes, Lucy A. 25 Apr 1866 Head, J. C. Wallace, Susan A. 8 Nov 1866 Wisdom, James R. Hughes, Hettie C. Jordan, Charles H. Hughes, Fannie Willis, Peter T. Price, Martha Stella Trent, T. E. Price, K. E.

#5342 #566

11 Sep 1867

30 Sep 1868

12 Jun 1872
History of Howard and Cooper Counties (St. Louis, MO: National Historical Company, 1883) {3965}
Chariton Twp., pp. 456-486 June Williams [#554/1] "Who in youth attended Hon. James G. Blame's school in Kentucky, and was born and reared in that state, has been a citizen of Howard county since 1853, and is one of the substantial and highly respected farmers of the county. He was born December 3, 1830, and at the age of nineteen, in 1849, bid good-bye to the dear ones of his native home in Scott county, and started for the gold fields of California. He remained in the Aladdin land of the Pacific until 1851, when he returned to"His old Kentucky home, far away." But on his trip he had passed through Howard county, this state, and had become impressed with the fertility of its soil and its other superior natural advantages, and accordingly, in 1853, he came to this county, where be settled and engaged permanently in farming. His place is about four and a half miles from Glasgow, and contains 212 acres of the best quality of land. On the 18th of December, 1854, Mr. Williams was married to Miss Martha Rucker, of Randolph county, but formerly of Virginia, and they have nine children living - Junie, Granville, Archie, Dabney, James, Mattie, Horace, Rena and Carrie. One, besides, is dead - Sidney. Mr. Williams is a member of the Masonic order. His father, Merrett Williams, was a Virginian by birth, but was reared in Kentucky. Mrs. Merrett Williams, mother of June, whose maiden name was Eliza Smith, was of Fayette county, Kentucky."

Jackson Co., Marriages {4134}
30 Sep 1885 Williams, Dabney Gannon, Gertrude #5544
Jasper Co., Marriages {4139}
20 Aug 1874 Boaz, Bird Payne, Catherine B. #273/1 #276
Johnson Co., Marriages {11739}
21 Feb 1883 Williams, O. D. Jordan, M. F.
Lafayette Co., Marriages {10231}
31 Mar 1875 Sydnor, George B. Burton, Adaline L.
Linn Co., Marriages {17432}
26 Oct 1848 Medley, Ambrose B. Ware, A. A. #517
Macon Co., Marriages {3762}
11 Nov 1845 Medley, Ambrose B. Crocket, Sarah by Samuel C. Davidson (or Sam Davies), M. G. filed in Book A, p. Mar 1846 Shortridge, George Maloan, Amanda by P. M. Pinkard, Preacher filed in Book A, p. 68 Sharp, Thomas G. Meadley, Margarett by James Dysart, Minister filed in Book A, p. 91 Epperson, Charles G. Malone, Fannie by Samuel Benjamin Franklin Caldwell, M. G. filed in Book D, p. 186 Turner, John C. Shortridge, Elizabeth A. E. #517

20 Jan 1847

26 Oct 1859

1 Jun 1869

#51111
16 Aug 1870 Shepherd, John Sharp, Mary Emma 11 May 1875 Sharp, T. Edwin Harrison, M. J. 27 Jun 1878 Days, William T. Shortridge, Sue C. Miller, Julius V. Sharp, Stella Sharp, Chas. D. Shortridge, Katie

#51A2 #51A3

#51113

14 Jan 1879

24 Sep 1885

#51116

Macon Co., Macon, Oakwood Cemetery {3758}
Shortridge, Amanda Shortridge, Sarah Shortridge, Addie F. Sharp, Kate Sharp, Charlie b. 29 Sep 1829 b. 11 Sep 1849 b. 1864 b. 1864 d. 2 Dec 1902 d. 25 Nov 1902 d. 50 May 1924 d. 1914 d. 1945 #5111 #51112 #51114 #51116 #51116/1
Shortridge, Charles A.b. 13 Nov 1865 d. 25 Jan 1922 #51117 Malone, Minnie M. b. 8 Apr 1848 d. 9 Apr 1879 #5115/1 Malone, James R. b. 1875 d. 1875 #51154 Malone, Jennie b. 3 Mar 1879 d. 15 Feb 1910 #51156
Macon Co., Bloomington Cemetery {3759}
Located three miles east of Bevier Shortridge, George A. (d. @ age 45y-8m-25d) d. 6 Oct 1865 #5111/1
Monroe Co., Marriages {4118}
28 Oct 1885 Head, Geo. L. Smith, Nannie #5612
Randolph Co., Marriages {4119}
30 Oct 1830 Dailey, James Medley, Sally
14 May 1833 Price, Sterling Head, Martha 1 Jul 1834 Davis, Daniel G. Medley, Harriet E.
26 May 1835 Pulliam, Benjamin G. of Saline Co., MO Head, Sarah Margaret 13 Sep 1837 Hughes, Van C. of Howard Co., MO Head, Mary
13 Dec 1838 Clark, William Medley, Jane 28 Jan 1842 Tinsley, Henry H. Burton, Harriet A. Clark, (Dr.) William Medley, Cornelia

#516 #532/1

9 Feb 1842

#516/1 #519

28 Apr 1842 Boniface, George Medley, Martha 19 Jun 1845 Thomas, S. [?] C. Head, Susan Freight, James Head, Hannah S. Boulmore, ----Head, (Mrs.) Hardina P.

8 Dec 1846

5 Dec 1848

#54/1 #551

23 Dec 1852 Rucker, Joel W. T. McCampbell, Ellen E. 13 Dec 1854 Williams, James Rucker, Martha 9 Jun 1857 Beasley, William Head, Elizabeth
21 Apr 1858 Smith, William Head, Florence 1 Sep 1859 Head, Thomas B. Patterson, Betty Rucker, James E. Smith, Kate Morehead, St. Clair T. Head, Texie Nash, William P. Boniface, Hattie F. father: George Boniface Morehead, S. T. Head, P. Wight, William A. James, Laura G. Snell, James C. Thomas, Kate Sellers, William Burrns, Virginia Williams, Major Blackford, Mattie

#547 #546

10 Jun 1863

15 Oct 1863

6 Apr 1864

14 Feb 1865

#548 #5421

12 Oct 1869

28 Jan 1870

5 Dec 1871

#565 #5542

30 Sep 1880

15 Nov 1882 Rucker, John F. Coates, Minnie 21 Mar 1883 Pitts, J. A. Head, Florence H. 18 Dec 1884 Head, James D. Wayland, Lizzie B. 10 Mar 1885 Price, Sterling Walcott, Emma B.

#5461 #5462

History of Randolph & Macon Counties [Missouri] 1884, Chapter IX, Silver Creek Township {17430}
Silver Creek is one of the four townships into which Randolph county was originally divided. It was made the smallest in extent of territory because it embraced the most thickly settled portion of the county at the time of its organization. This fact, taken in connection with its location along the border of Howard county, which was settled first, leads us to infer that it is the oldest township in the county. Although originally the smallest in area, it has recently given up 18 square miles of its territory to the newly organized township of Moniteau, and being without railroad or a railroad town within its borders, it still ranks sixth in population among the eleven townships into which the county is now divided, and shows a greater voting strength than four others which have railroads running through them. These facts show that outside of the towns and cities, Silver Creek township is still the most thickly settled of any in the county. It is situated in the south-west corner of the county. The leading Protestant religious denominations, embracing Baptist, Methodist, Presbyterians and Christians, have places of public worship and hold regular services; the Missionary Baptists being the most numerous while the others are quite respectable in numbers. There are three churches in the township - three of which are Baptists and the other two are union churches. There are two voting precincts in Silver Creek township, one at Mt. Airy and the other in that part of Roanoke which lies in this county. Mt. Airy is located on the public road leading from Huntsville to Roanoke, about 7 miles from the former place and 12 miles from Moberly. There is plenty of coal in this township and the local demand is easily supplied, for which purposes only have the mines been so far developed. The indications are, however, that with proper facilities for transportation, a large business could be done in shipping this mineral to outside markets. There are two corn and saw mills in the township, one owned by J. C. Head and the other by James Bagby. The latter is engaged also to some extent in the manufacture of flour. OLD SETTLERS Silver Creek has held on well to its old settlers, and quite a number who settled there before and about the time the township was organized are still living there in advanced age, while the descendants of most of those who have since died, yet cling to the homes of their childhood and linger around the graves of their fathers. Among these are John Viley, who has been judge of the county court, Nicholas Dysart, George W. Dameron, once sheriff, Woodson Newby, James Goodman, Morgan Finnell, William Burton, William Thompson, William R. Burch, George Ellis, Newton Bradley, Jeff. Fullington, Samuel Cockrell, John Minor, Paschall Troyman, Leven I. Dawkins, John Vaughan, Cornelius Vaughan, Allen Mayo, John Alexander, William E. Walden, William Nichols, Roderick O'Brien, William Holman, Joseph Holman, Sr., John Sears, Sr., Hardy Sears, Iverson Sears, Allen Mayo, William Mayo, Valentine Mayo, John Rowland, Younger Rowland, D. R. Denny, Samuel C. Davis, Isaiah Humphrey, William Fort, Asa Kirby, John Head, Ambrose Medley, Basil Mc Davitt, Sr., Roger West, James Davis, Rev Samuel C. Davis, Thomas Bradley, Tolman Gorham, Jr., Thomas Gorham, Ambrose Halliburton, William Morrow and Joseph Morrow.

. About the year 1837, Capt William Upton, another old settler, opened a store at his place in connection with D. C. Garth, who lived at Huntsville, and had another store there. A blacksmith shop and a tobacco factory were soon after erected, and the place was first called Uptonsville. The enterprising people of the vicinity, however, were not long in obtaining a post-office, which was christened Mt. Airy, a name which has ever since borne. Capt. Upton, several years before the late war, sold out his farm and store and moved south of the Missouri river, where he still lives, soar advanced in years. Judge James Head, one of Silver Creek's pioneers, a resident when the county was organized, and one of the judges of the first county court, founded Roanoke on the Howard county line in 1838. The place at first went by several names, as suited the fancy of the settlers, such as Head's Store, and Van Buren, the favorite and successful Democratic candidate for th presidency for the year. But when the post-office was established there, at the suggestion of Judge Head, it was named for the residence of a favorite statesman of his native State -- the celebrated John Randolph, of Roanoke. The Judge Head emigrated to Randolph county, form Orange county, Virginia, several years before the county was organized. He was accompanied by his sister, Mrs. Fannie Medley and her husband, Jacob Medley, who settled near him, and was the first collector of Randolph county. Judge Head lived on his farm adjoining Roanoke, and carried on business in the town, until 1849, when he moved to Lockhart, Texas, where he died in 1875, at the age of 82 years. He was followed to this State in 1831 by his father and mother, and all his remaining brothers and sisters, except Mrs Minor Rucker, who came with her husband and family in 1837. They all settled in Randolph county. His father, John Head, and his brother, John Head, Jr.m settled in Silver Creek, two miles north of Roanoke, the former on the farm where he resided until his death in 1852, and which the latter now owns and occupies. All the others settled in and around Huntsville. There were Dr. Walker Head, who was twice elected to the Legislature form this county, and at the time of his death in 1845, he had just been elected a delegate to the State Convention, to revise the Constitution. Mrs. Emily Chiles, Mrs. Sarah D. Allen, Mrs Amanda Garth, and Mrs Harriet Rucker were other members of the family. Mrs. Marsha Price, the youngest daughter, was single when she came to the State, and was married to General Sterling Price, at her father's residence in Silver Creek township, in the year 1833. Capt. John Head, who, as we have stated, resides upon his father's homestead adjoining the farm on which he settled in 1831, has been engaged in agricultural pursuits for 52 years. He raised a family of nine children - four sons and five daughters, seven of whom are still living. Capt. Head has always taken a lively interest in politics on the Democratic side, ever since the days of Andrew Jackson, for whom he cast his first vote for President in 1824.

Randolph Co., Higbee News, 29 Sep 1916, Obituary of James E. Rucker [#556] {12288}
JAMES E RUCKER DEAD--James E. Rucker, long recognized as one of Randolph county's most progressive farmers, as well as one of its most high minded, kind hearted and charitable citizens, died at his home just north of town at 9 o'clock Sunday night, Sept. 24, 1916, following an illness of several weeks. Deceased was a son of Capt. Minor Rucker, a valiant soldier of the War of 1812, who moved to Missouri from Virginia in 1833, locating in what was then Howard, but is now Randolph county, entering and buying 1900 acres of land where Randolph Springs are. It was on this farm that James Edwin Rucker was born, Oct 3, 1839, and where he grew to manhood. Being of a studious turn of mind, he was given a thorough education, graduating with high honors from Mt. Pleasant College in 1860 under the guidance of William R. Rothwell. In 1863 he was united in marriage to Miss Sarah C. Smith, daughter of Joel Smith, one of the county's prominent farmers and capitalists. They were blessed with a family of eight children, all of whom, with the mother, survive, viz: J. Walker, Mrs. Wm. Higginbotham, Mrs. G. M. Nichols, Mrs. Wm. McGlothlin, Mrs. W. F. Spotts, Joel S., Mrs. W. L. Cave and Mrs. W. D. Burke. Mr. Rucker had been a citizen of Moniteau township for almost fifty years, having resided continuously on the farm where he died since 1874. The township nor the county never contained a broader minded or more tender hearted man, nor one more willing to give of his time and means in the aid of any worthy cause or to relieve those in distress. He united with the Baptist church in 1884 under the preaching of the Rev. S. Y. Pitts, and had been an active officer in the church since its organization in 1886. Funeral services were conducted at the church Tuesday afternoon by his former pastor, the Rev. L. M. White, assisted by Eld. E. Y. Keiter. Interment was made in the city cemetery, the Masonic fraternity, of which deceased had long been an honored member, having charge of the services. In the death of this good man the county as well as his family has suffered an irreparable loss, and the sympathy of all goes out to the bereft.
St. Louis, Marriages {17590}
2 Jan 1867 Price, Celsus Price, Celestie B. #5A3
Saline Co., Marriages {3711}
16 Dec 1868 Bradford, L. A. Webb, S. A. 23 Feb 1869 Bradford, Benjamin F. Webb, Susie F. Bradford, L. A. Collier, Lara F. Hall, John R. Thomas, Marceline W. #2522 ?

#2523 ?

4 Jul 1883

#2522 ?

4 Feb 1885
Saline Co., Marshall, Ridge Park Cemetery {17355}

Bradford, Laura F. b. 11 Oct 1854 d. 30 Nov 1903 #2522/2 ? (wife of Landon A. Bradford; dau. of Valentine S. & Frances Collier)
Scott Co., Marriages {3685}
21 Dec 1843 Brady, Jas. Wesley Mansfield, Mary Emily filed in Book 1, p. Aug 1851 Newman, Alfred Brady, Mary Emily by George W. Tayler, J. P. (Kelso Twp.) filed in Book 1, pp. 151 & 166
27 Nov 1864 Head, Benjamin Newman, Emily filed in Book 2, p. Nov 1864 Walker, James Head, Susan Fanny filed in Book 2, p. Dec 1869 Head, George Marshall, Jane filed in Book 2, p. Jan 1872 Head, Henry W. Foster, Martha filed in Book 2, p. 245 Griffiths, Alvin Head, Marthy E. filed in Book A, p. 13

9 Apr 1872